The phenomenon known as “climate change”, refers to an ongoing trend of changes in the earth’s general weather conditions as a result of an average rise in the temperature of the earth’s surface often referred to as global warming. This rise in the average global temperature is due, primarily, to the increased concentration of gases known as greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere that are emitted by human activities. These gases intensify a natural phenomenon called the “greenhouse effect” by forming an insulating layer in the atmosphere that reduces the amount of the sun’s heat that radiates back into space and therefore has the effect of making the earth warmer.
While weather changes on a daily basis, climate represents the statistical distribution of weather patterns over time, and on a global scale has changed only very slowly in the past – usually over periods of tens of thousands of years or even millions of years which allows time for the earth’s bio-physical systems to adapt naturally to the changing climatic conditions. Currently, the global climate is changing much more rapidly as a result of global warming, leading to, among others, the melting of polar and glacier ice, sea-level rise, ocean acidification, changes in rainfall and snowfall patterns, more frequent floods and droughts and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as tornadoes, hurricanes and cyclones – including additional extreme climate events such as cold spells. The rapid rate of this climate change does not allow the earth’s bio-physical systems to adapt to these changes naturally.
What causes climate change are the greenhouse gases (GHGs) that are emitted from, and are reabsorbed by, a variety of natural sources. The rate at which human economies and societies are emitting these gases far exceeds the capacity of natural ecosystems to reabsorb them. Increased industrial activity since the mid-18th century has led to a rapid increase in the atmospheric concentration of GHGs such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, in large part due to the burning of fossil fuels derived from oil, coal and natural gas.
The rate of emissions has been steadily increasing over time, and computer models of the earth’s climate system (including both natural and human causes) are unable to simulate recent warming unless they include anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases.
Land-based human activities, such as forest clearing and unsustainable agricultural practices, are not only increasing GHG emissions from these sources, but are also reducing the earth’s natural ability to absorb GHGs. The evidence that current global warming is due to human activities associated with industrialisation and modern agriculture is overwhelming.
The Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report addresses the most up-to-date physical understanding of the climate system and climate change, bringing together the latest advances in climate science.
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